Does Putin have to Die?: Interview with Ilya Ponomarev Episode 11

This article is the transcript of a live ‘interview’ show “Does Putin have to Die?” done regularly by journalist Gregg Stebben and Ilya Ponomarev, the only member of the Russian Parliament to vote against Putin in the annexation of Crimea and now a Russian dissident and Ukraine supporter. Please excuse any transcript errors in this article.

Ilya Ponomarev and Gregg Stebben interview

Gregg: Good. All right.

Gregg: I’m Gregg Stebben. I’m here with Ilya Ponomarev. It is on the 16th of March. And as we’re recording this, the FSF building or an FSB building is on fire. you’re smiling, which is what I would’ve expected. let’s start with that. Let’s start with what is going on inside Russia that we should know about, including, what seems like a stepped-up rate of things like fires.

Ilya: Russia is on fire. It’s a war that’s going on. And it continues. What is on fire? It’s in, resto region, which is, next to Ukraine, and that’s the main military base of, Russian Army in the south. the headquarters of the South and, a military district of, Russia and, headquarters of south and, a federal district which, combines all the south and regions of Russia.

Ilya: So it’s an important region, and they have the regional headquarters of FSB there. And, part of FSB headquarters is the border service. which reports currently to FSB. It was several times transferred from one department of, Russian government to another. currently it reports to FSB and that’s what, was blown up this morning.

Ilya: it was, done with an explosion. It was in a planted bomb. and, it started in the warehouse now that, belong to, this border service of FSB. and the fire was pretty spectacular, I would say.

Gregg: Hmm hmm. And it does seem like we’re seeing more and more of these kinds of targeted events.

Gregg: And do you think that that’s gonna continue to be happening at a stepped-up rate because there are more and more Russians who are willing to participate in these kinds of events?

Ilya: Yeah. It becomes fashionable among the youth. obviously I’m among a certain type of youths, radical youth, but nevertheless, so in, this particular case, it was not, Ukrainian.

Ilya: the sources are definitely inside Russia. We don’t know who were, the people who actually have done this. I have, no doubt that it’s, that it was a bomb because of the characteristics of the explosion. Obviously, FSB itself, they downplayed and they say that it was, just an accident spark.

Ilya: yeah, that’s a favourite Ukrainian joke. You know, that somebody did smoke in the wrong place, but they say that it was an electric spark that triggered the fire. And there was gas storage, there, something like this. And, it exploded. And then the rest went, on fire. But, we know it’s, it warehouse where they held, the arms, for FSB.

Ilya: That’s why the scale was, that spectacular. Yeah. But, the day before yesterday it was. Where we definitely know who was in charge, it was our guys from the region, free Russia, the partisan arm, which is working on the territory of Russia, which, blew up, the, artillery, stockpile.

Ilya: and it was, even more spectacular than what we see right now in the rest of, just the rest of it was in the centre of the city, and that was just a standalone warehouse. What happened the day before yesterday.

Gregg: If I’m a citizen of Russia since the government controls the media, what conclusions might I begin to draw about all of these explosions and fires throughout the country that seem well-targeted?

Gregg: Is there any crack in the armour? Are people beginning to understand that it’s not what the government-controlled media is telling me?

Ilya: You know, people in Russia, unfortunately, don’t know too much. What’s going on? so the impact is more on the Russian elites. The elites are aware.

Ilya: And the main objective is to make it clear, for the upper circles of Russian society that they’re no longer safe. And that the war is here and that the current government, is not capable of controlling the situation. They cannot guarantee them security. So to provoke them to split and to start, searching the way out.

Ilya: And actually that’s, that’s happening. I think, it’s worth mentioning that just three days ago, 15 top members of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, which is the main club, official club. It’s a government-sponsored club, of Russian large business resigned.

Ilya: and the reason for their resignation was that they didn’t want to go to meet, with Vladimir Putin. They had a meeting yesterday and to avoid meeting with Vladimir Putin, they resigned. Otherwise, they were supposed to attend and the reason for this obviously is sanctions. Because they perfectly understood that, the sanctions are being applied on, on the people who, who are meeting with Vladimir Putin.

Ilya: that, international community and especially Ukrainians, we here do this work. we track everybody who is coming to all these large conventions and everything. And, when the faces are identified, they immediately are being sent to be sanctioned and you know, they, they were very interesting people actually, among those who resigned.

Ilya: For example, one of the, largest businessmen in, in, in Russia, and. Who at the time was pretty close to Vladimir Putin, he’s the main owner of, major, internet, companies in Russia, like Kentucky male daughter, Yu and others. So he resigned and, said that he’s going to leave Russia and would start leaving.

Ilya: that’s, where his roots, are. you know, obviously nobody from Russia would voluntarily just leave to Stan, then, and there’s

Gregg: There’s also, we should point out, there are limitations to where they can go as well. They’re no longer free, I think, to go to London or Paris or, or.
Ilya: Yeah, they definitely, they’re very much restricted with this, international, international sanctions policy.

Ilya: but the choice of his biggest standard was really something. And, then, you know, one guy is extremely interesting. The guy, is, Stephan. He is the son of the famous writer who is a Nobel Prize, lower, and then whatever. Stephan’s father was pretty conservative in general in his views.

Ilya: and, but his son is a businessman. He was, during, the Russian branch of McKinsey. so he’s a very well-known, consultant in Russia, but he shares totally the same conservative use and he was praising Putin’s annexation of Crimea, and, all the stuff like this. But that was kind of the last straw when he preferred to resign.

Ilya: But, try to avoid the, billion sanctions.

Gregg: I wanna make a point here or have you confirmed something. I guess this is a theory of mine. When Putin invites these kinds of oligarchs and leaders and influencers to the Kremlin to meet with him, I’m assuming that this is a power. Just inviting them as a power play because he knows, they know that if they get photographed, there’s going to be a cost to them.

Gregg: So it’s in a sense a loyalty test.

Ilya: you are absolutely right. it’s definitely a test and, they were to discuss, so-called windfall tax because mm-hmm. , Russian budget for already two consequent, months is, is in a deep red. the oil and gas revenues have dropped 46%, since last year.

Ilya: and that’s why they are applying, so-called windfall tax for, excessive revenues, that they enjoyed the previous year because of. the high, natural resources, prices. so, they literally, they want to, they want to confiscate some of their, some of their wealth. And, it’s funny because originally Putin…

Ilya: In January, he said, oh, you know, businesses should, be socially conscious, apply their, their social consciousness, and donate some money, to the, to the federal budget. And in the previous years, it worked. You know, when, Putin was asking large businesses, you know, please contribute, they usually were contributing because it was, well repaid.

Ilya: Firstly, it was pretty dangerous not to follow, but usually a government, one way or another, compensates with some state contracts or something else, you know, so, It was the right thing to do, but, this time they refused. They said, they said that, they, suffered a lot, throughout the previous year and they expect, more suffering to come, this year.

Ilya: And, that’s why they, they better staff their coffers and, you know, and not, and not spend money. And then they already introduced a law in, in the department and this meeting, which they held actually yesterday. That was the, discussion of this windfall tax.

Ilya: That was the main subject.

Gregg: Was it dangerous for these oligarchs not to attend that meeting yesterday?

Ilya: No, obviously, yes. those who are, who are members, they’re supposed to come. otherwise it’s kinda, you’re not paying attention to the president, you know, and, whatever. But, I would say that the resignation was an even more powerful signal of disloyalty, but, at least, it’s not, formal disloyalty.

Ilya: it’s not an insult to Putin because when you are being invited, when you are not coming to meet with the president, it’s kinda like a personal insult. Yeah. Now they kind of, they’re not invited. Yes. They, they show that they are afraid of the West more than they are afraid of Putin, that they’re not a hundred per cent loyal, but at least they’re not insulting.

Ilya: Yes, yes.

Gregg: All right. So Putin had his meeting yesterday. There was also a meeting of, and I may say this wrong, there was Ramstein 10. Is it Ramstein or Ramstein? Yeah, Ramstein. Right?

Ilya: Ramstein. Yeah.

Gregg: Ramstein. What was the outcome of that? And, I’ve also observed that increasingly these meetings have gotten more and more attention and there’s been more and more sort of, public demand through social media and things.

Gregg: This one was, was pretty quiet. why do you think it was quiet and what was the outcome of it?

Ilya: I think it was quiet because they were discussing pretty serious stuff. And again, if you mentioned, yesterday, you know, Poland, started giving aeroplanes to Ukraine. The first, the first four, jet fighters, Mick 29.

Ilya: So Soviet fighters, not at sixteens, but nevertheless, they, were, sent to Ukraine already. and it’s actually funny because the, because Ukraine itself, started to downplay the importance saying, Yeah. You know, it’s, it’s all, it’s also good fighters, you know, they would not change the situation dramatically, you know, the field of war.

Ilya: Yeah. But obviously, that’s, to ease the decision-making process for the Western, nation. So it is not that radical, you know, these kinds of things, but obviously, that’s what they were discussing.

Gregg: In other words, they don’t wanna signal, but now that we’ve got these fighter jets from Poland, we don’t need your F16s.

Gregg: Yeah, yeah. Yes. We need them even more. Yeah.

Ilya: All right. So, It’s, it’s actually, you know what really puzzles me? It’s, it’s really what puzzles me. We even made a show about this, yesterday on our channel, is that, it looks like Russia, At, the eve of every Ramstein meeting is doing something to actually encourage Western states to become more and more radicalized.

Ilya: Mm.

Gregg: So they don’t see it that way. They see it as an aggressive move, but it turns out to be something that motivates the West to be even more engaged.

Ilya: Absolutely. And then, it really puzzles me. Cause the day before yesterday, they made this, attack on, the drone, American drone, the Reaper, which was flying over the Black Sea.

Ilya: And, obvious those drones, they were flying there all the way along. Right. So that’s like, that’s a usual thing. it’s a surveillance intelligence vehicle which is doing the regular mission. and it’s not, coming into Russian, territory, even the Russian territory. How Russians perceive that territory.

Ilya: Yes. Cause in the decision of, crime. but this time it was attacked by two, suit 20 sevens. And, they essentially, they, they shot it down, not with the missile, but with dispersing fuel, twice, over, over the drone and made it fall. But, you know, it doesn’t matter how you, how you actually do it, right?

Ilya: It means that you actually shut it. Right. Let’s, you know, let’s, let’s put it in plain language. So it was shut down. and, obviously, you know, what’s the result, of this, you know, even in like a common logic, okay, if, Russians don’t care and they, they’re shooting down even American fighters, American, jets, which are in the skies, you know, so what’s the point of not giving Ukraine.

Ilya: for fighters, you know, that means that the risk level is significantly lower. It’s already happening. plus additionally, immediately, the very next day announced that they would open Bosphorus, for transit of US area. And, the, the situation there is that there is, a special international convention called Montreal Convention…

Ilya: which regulates, the regime of, passing, this strait. and, appealing to this convention, Turkey restricts Russian Navy to actually cross the streets, and they’re not allowing Russian Navy to come into the Black Sea, but in, but in this situation, US is being attacked.

Ilya: they’re saying that now they would not restrict the American Navy to come into the Black Sea. And, that you guys are welcome and, Turkey, as you understand, it’s not, it’s not Russian ally. Right, the country, which, which tries to, to, to be in the middle, you know, to be neutral in terms of contract.

Ilya: It’s more lenient towards Ukraine, but nevertheless, but, open in the trade. It’s, it’s a strategic move. It’s really a strategic move. That’s why, you know, I congratulate, those, in Russian military command who actually made the decision to shut down the this bloody reaper, because they achieved a lot.

Gregg: So let’s, let’s think about this analytically for a second. Putin’s meeting is coming up. The Ramstein meeting is coming up. As you said, it seems like they almost do something in advance of Ramstein to even empower the West. How did they see it? Why would they think that shooting down this drone would be a smart…

Gregg: move for the Russian military and for the Russian cause.

Ilya: I think that because it’s, now even officially when, they say it was, not so long time, like a week ago, it was a discussion. Now with the participation of, Laro and Maria, Zara saw the highest shots in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They, it was a large public discussion and they were saying, we now understand that soft power is not working any longer.

Ilya: That it has to be only military. that’s the only argument that the West would understand. Obviously, that’s the other way around. Actually, the West is way more susceptible to soft power, than, Russia. It’s Putin who understands only brute force. but, they occur coming even more to this conclusion that they need to apply force all the time.

Ilya: They need to demonstrate their decision, they need to demonstrate their arrogance, and they consider it to be you know, a positive tool. And that’s why I really believe that it’s, it’s a conscious thing that it’s not a coincidence. And that, they were shooting down the drone and, before each previous Ramstein meeting, they were doing something, especially nesting, like, bombing of civilian buildings and, right, especially massive attacks on the, energy infrastructure of Ukraine.

Ilya: which also was funny because, when Ukraine was applying, to receive more anti-missile attack on, on, on Ukraine. so like a demonstration? Yes. Ukraine needs to have an anti-defence. Yes. Obviously, they were trying to say that we don’t care and we will overcome whatever anti-missile defence you would supply.

Ilya: That was probably the message that they were trying to communicate, but the result was exactly the opposite.

Gregg: Is there anybody in the room? Who understands the West and is explaining things as you just did and it’s being ignored, or is this just a strategic failure of even trying to understand how actions are going to be perceived by the other side?

Gregg: How, how is it, how is it that they can fail to read the room over and over and over again?

Ilya: I think that the main reason is that, the strategic decisions are being made by Putin person. And Putin personally does not understand the West at all. And, his, west most, the location, where he spent at least considerable period of time, was Eastern Germany, during, the Cold War.

Ilya: And, he never had any chance to travel inside Western countries to communicate informally, with, the elites, with the decision-makers, with ordinary people. So he does not understand how things work. at all. And right now the situation in Russia is that nobody is ready to confront Putin.

Ilya: Nobody is, ready to say something which he doesn’t want to hear, which he, thinks is unpleasant for him personally. You know, stuff like that. And, I think that is the reason, because obviously the rap people inside, Russian elites who do understand the West. to a different degree obviously, you know, but, and even there are people who are quite close to Putin because, for example, Sergey Lavrov understands very well.

Ilya: He lived for a very long time in the United States, and, he was, a Russian ambassador to the United Nations for many years. And before he became the ambassador, he was the deputy ambassador. So he had a lot of like informal contacts, and his daughter is living in the United States.

Ilya: In New York. she is even a US citizen if I’m not mistaken. ironically, yes. so, he has all the exposure, but obviously, he doesn’t dare to communicate. And, remember it was an article. , an article, I think it was in Financial Times which was dedicated to the anniversary of this war.

Ilya: And it was a quote from an unnamed source in, in Moscow, which quoted Sergey Lavrov, the morning after the invasion. in February 2022 started, that he was saying that Putin listens to no one but the great, Peter of the Great and, Ivan Terrible. That these are only three people who are his buddies.

Ilya: and obviously the source of the leak was himself. it was not like, some disloyal person. Yes. Cause the message was very clear. Guys, it’s not on us. You know, we, which we, we could have tried to, to, to convince him and something else, but he doesn’t lose.

Gregg: So let’s change gears a little bit.

Gregg: I do want to talk about what’s happening with the Congress, but before we go there, it seems like it would be a shame for us not to talk about the Navalny film. It’s winning. You know, what does that mean? And, you know, what’s your take on that?

Ilya: No, I have very, mixed feelings about this because, from one side, I’m really glad that, a documentary about, Russian opposition struggle against Putin.

Ilya: One because, I think that currently our main adversary right now is the United States and the American elite, which are so much afraid of, everything that is connected to the regime change in Russia. You know, that they, don’t want to spook Putin. They don’t want to provoke him. so, they…

Ilya: Are kind of blocking whatever initiatives are targeted to actually do things inside, inside Russia, which to my mind is a big mistake. but with this movie, I really want to thank, academics, which made their decision. Obviously, it’s a political statement Yeah. That, United States should think…

Ilya: About the future, Russia should think about the regime change, should think about human rights in the country and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So in this thing, from this sense, it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s very positive. What was negative is the visual message that was sent during, the ceremony. It was when, Naval family was, coming, like they were celebrating it.

Ilya: they were not, projecting the image of people who are actually fighting. And, that was noted by many people. So it generated another fight within the Russian opposition, you know, who started pointing fingers. And especially bad it was taken in Ukraine because one of the competing documentaries was the documentary, about an orphanage in Wansuk.

Ilya: and, wounded kids and it was visually the picture of the family from Wansuk, with kids with amputated limbs. And then there was this happy family of Naval and they were saying, oh, that’s the difference between Russian fighters and Ukrainian fighters. Yes, and the fact that the, the director of the movie was speaking, about the war, but, Yu Naval, the wife of Alexy, didn’t say a single word about, the war and, and what, what’s going on.

Ilya: That also triggered, a lot of pushback and even outreach, in Ukraine. And obviously, that was not helpful.

Gregg: In some ways, I thought that how this all transpired was sort of a good wrap-up of Navaleal’s history in of itself. It’s confusing. And it, and I think it gets whitewashed and people grab onto one part of his story and don’t understand the rest of the story.

Gregg: And in some ways, I thought what happened with his wife and with the filmmaker was just more confusion, adding more confusion to an already confusing story. Navalny is, the more people learn about him, I think the less sure they are, that he’s a great opposition figure for Russia.

Gregg: Do you agree with that? Is there anything you wanna say about that?

Ilya: No, I definitely agree with this, but I think it really doesn’t matter at the moment. Cause he’s in jail. Yes. we need to liberate him no matter what, because he’s a political prisoner. Of course. he is Putin’s adversary and, in this sense he’s our ally.

Ilya: that’s definitely not the person I would like to see at the helm of my country. Yes. but, nevertheless, right now we are in one boat and we shouldn’t rock it. we should win. We have one common enemy, which, needs to be, defeated. And that’s very important that, all the struggles within the opposition, there right now, counterproductive and, with naval, actually the situation, in this slide is pretty simple.

Ilya: Cause he’s in jail. He will not be part of the change. the change would liberate. After the change, he would become a real political actor inside Russia. That’s true. But he would not be part of the change itself. So he would not be part of the force that actually, would make the change.

Ilya: That’s why, to think too much about his views and about his take on life and about his values. You know, I despise most of them, but it doesn’t matter. he’s a victim of this regime and we need to fix it.

Gregg: And, so part of what you’re saying is when he’s freed, he’ll be freed by a Democratic Russia and in a Democratic Russia, he’s free to pursue whatever political goals he may wish to, you know, he can be part of the opposition or now the new, the new government in any way that he sees fit and, and that makes sense.

Ilya: Yeah, absolutely. But, let him compete on the free and open elections. Yes. And, let him win the hearts of the voters and the voters decide to entrust him with the power in the future. That, that’s fine. But this transition period, from the dictatorship to democracy, he’s not part of it. Yes. But again, he’s in jail right now.

Ilya: And his people are not willing to participate in any efforts to draft the Constitution, to set up the rules of the game. And, I totally understand why they don’t want this because they don’t want to be part of something. They want to be the only people who are they wanna be the thing. Yeah. So, again, let Naval be free and, let him fight for that.

Gregg: All right, so before I let you go today, I want to get an update on the Congress, but I wanna start with something you tweeted on the 14th two days ago. and I’m just gonna read it to you. And yes, I suggest Congress of People’s Deputies appoint Hoda Kosky as head of the transitional government for the time of overcoming crisis.

Gregg: So, we could have spent 30 minutes just talking about this, but there were other things to discuss. So what is the crisis? And does Mr Hoda Koski know that he’s being nominated for this role and does he accept,

Ilya: he knows. and obviously, I think that’s his ambition. not to become such the devil is as always in the details because, in my mind there has to be a political, leadership, which would be inside the parliament, inside the legislature.

Ilya: Mm-hmm. and the legislature should appoint. Technical government, the managers, yes, virtually would run the economist, the economy, the industry, and would fix, this oligarchy capitalism that, Mr Putin, has, created. And I think that Mihail is the perfect person for this. You know, I think that within the opposition, he’s the most capable and the most reasonable, and the most far-thinking manager.

I have, certain disagreements with him on the strategic, views. for example on, how Russian regions, should be, structured and what should be the federal construction of the state on many other things. We totally agree. he also published his book, about a dragon which needs, which needs to be defeated and where he formulates his program.

My program is our book with you. Does Putin have to die? But, these programs are pretty close. I’m saying with the only exception of. For the Russian regions. I think that, we are very much on the same page. So obviously for me, it’s, it’s an, it’s an obvious choice and, but it’s not for me to decide, it’s for other, members of the parliament to decide.

 But I think it would be a good choice if we go that way.

Gregg: So the next meeting of the Congress, if I understand, is in June. Is that correct?

Ilya: It’s in June. It’s in June, that’s right.

Gregg: And do you think a relationship with Mr Hoda Korski, will be determined by that time or at that meeting? Will he be at that meeting?

Gregg: What? What do you think comes next?

Ilya: No, I think that, all the personal decisions, they have to be made in the very last moment. Mm-hmm. , because the situation is, being constantly changing. you know, we would have newies coming in, you know, so we shouldn’t like, fill the slots before, before this situation comes to a critical point.

Right now I think we have other things to do and these other things to do, from one side is the, legislation. the rules of the game that we need to draft from other sides. It’s a military aspect. It’s, region-free Russia. It’s, it’s the force that we need to actually kill the bastard.

Yes, to remove the regime and, and, to change, to change the power in Russia. These are two things that we need to be focused on right now. Whoever may help. That’s good. Hmm.

Gregg: Interesting. Is there anything else about the Congress you want to tell us before I let you go today?

Ilya: Well, I think that’s, probably, I would like to point out one thing not to go unnoticed, maybe we’ll talk later, in our next, meetings about this, is that, there would be several attempts, to get Russian opposition a little bit more united.

And there would be, a meeting which actually, was announced by Mi sk the affirmation person, in Berlin at the end of April. And where I hope already most of the actors in the Russian opposition would get together. And then it’ll be continued on the strategic, session in the European Parliament, in the middle of May.

So I hope that we’ll, make certain decisions and make certain arrangements, which they then will be discussed at the Congress in June and would be also codified in the legislative decisions,

Gregg: to date you and Mr Hoda Koski. And Mr Kasparov and others have had different approaches to this.

And it sounds like there’s, what’s happening is an alignment or collaboration between groups instead of groups going off in their separate directions? Is that, is that a good way to summarize it?

Ilya: I very much hope so. I very much hope so. I was a proponent of such alignment for a very long time.

Mm-hmm. It has always been met with, certain ambitions of different people. But I will continue to push in this direction and I’m glad that Miha said that he would be doing the same. And I very much, hope that Gary would join the plot. Fantastic.

Gregg: All right. Is there anything else you wanna add before I let you go?

That’s it. Ilya, thank you very much. I hope we’ll get a chance to talk again next week. Keep up the good work. We’ll be following you on social media and for our Russian speaking, friends, do you want to talk about your audiobook that you have on YouTube? Yeah, definitely.

Ilya: Definitely.

Gregg: Yeah. So, the Russian version of the book Does Putin Have To Die.
 Ilya is doing in many, many segments cuz it’s 700 pages, in its original form. many of the things we talked about here today, particularly about the future of Russia are in the book. Does Putin have to die? So of course you can find it at Amazon or does Putin have to die? Ilya, thank you again for talking

 I look forward to talking with you again next week.

Ilya: Thanks for having me.